Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4318
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
MQ 4318 · CID → DFW
departs 7:32 PM CT · arrives 9:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 27%
Fri 10/30 30%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CID (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 9,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.01 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.