Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 9870
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
MQ 9870 · DFW → ZCL
departs 3:49 PM CT · arrives 5:07 PM CST
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ZCL more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ZCL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ZCL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ZCL?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ZCL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.