Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 9871
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
MQ 9871 · DFW → ORD
departs 6:44 PM CT · arrives 9:18 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.