MX 1464 · RDU → RSW

departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 10:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from RDU are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at RDU that day

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 1464 · RDU → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?