MX 157 · GSP → TPA

departs 8:20 PM ET · arrives 10:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP

Weather at each end

GSP (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 157 · GSP → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?