MX 158 · TPA → GSP

departs 5:59 PM ET · arrives 7:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GSP?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GSP (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 158 · TPA → GSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSP?