MX 1611 · RDU → CMH

departs 4:57 PM ET · arrives 6:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from RDU are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

CMH (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 1611 · RDU → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?