MX 1622 · RSW → MSN

departs 1:56 PM ET · arrives 4:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at RSW

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

MSN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling10,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 1622 · RSW → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?