MX 1644 · PVU → SNA

departs 7:25 PM MT · arrives 8:21 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PVU

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PVU (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 1644 · PVU → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?