MX 1711 · SAN → ORF

departs 1:12 PM PT · arrives 9:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±3 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 1711 · SAN → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?