MX 1766 · ORF → SAN

departs 9:18 AM ET · arrives 12:13 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 1766 · ORF → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?