MX 1786 · SRQ → RDU

departs 3:56 PM ET · arrives 6:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at RDU that day

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 1786 · SRQ → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?