Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1847
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MX 1847 · VRB → IAD
departs 7:01 AM ET · arrives 9:47 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave VRB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 31 kt, 0.8 in of rain forecast at VRB that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
VRB (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.41 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.