MX 1866 · ISP → RSW

departs 7:38 PM ET · arrives 11:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at RSW

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into RSW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ISP

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ISP (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 1866 · ISP → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?