MX 189 · ROC → RSW

departs 12:02 PM ET · arrives 3:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RSW?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at RSW

↑ This route's recent record

↑ RSW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 189 · ROC → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?