Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1939
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MX 1939 · BTV → TPA
departs 9:54 AM ET · arrives 1:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave BTV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MX's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↓
BTV usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BTV
Weather at each end
BTV (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.