MX 2002 · RDU → PWM

departs 2:20 PM ET · arrives 4:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PWM?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 2pm departures from RDU are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PWM

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

PWM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 2002 · RDU → PWM

Odds over time

How late will it get to PWM?