MX 2505 · MCO → SBY

departs 6:12 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SBY more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBY?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBY

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

SBY (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 2505 · MCO → SBY

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBY?