Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 2854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MX 2854 · MCO → RDU
departs 2:12 PM ET · arrives 4:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at RDU that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.