MX 2854 · RDU → ROC

departs 4:49 PM ET · arrives 6:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 4pm departures from RDU are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 2854 · RDU → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?