MX 504 · BDL → SRQ

departs 3:07 PM ET · arrives 6:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±3 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SRQ?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SRQ at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BDL

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BDL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SRQ (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 504 · BDL → SRQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to SRQ?