Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 6400
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MX 6400 · BDL → RDU
departs 10:41 AM ET · arrives 12:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MX's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at RDU that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BDL
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BDL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.