Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28
MX 653 · ACV → LAS
departs 12:51 PM PT · arrives 2:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave ACV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at ACV that day
Weather at each end
ACV (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.7 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.