MX 811 · RIC → TPA

departs 7:23 PM ET · arrives 9:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at RIC that day

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 811 · RIC → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?