MX 821 · SBY → MCO

departs 9:14 PM ET · arrives 11:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±7 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBY

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SBY (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 821 · SBY → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?