MX 863 · LNK → MCO

departs 6:25 PM CT · arrives 10:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LNK (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 863 · LNK → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?