Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5136 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

OH 5136 · SRQ → PHL

departs 2:09 PM ET · arrives 4:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5136 · SRQ → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?