OO 3003 · SMF → PDX

took off 11:56 AM PT · expected to land 1:09 PM PT (scheduled 11:44 AM PT → 1:33 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PDX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at PDX that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3003 · SMF → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?