OO 3494 · SFO → SNA

took off 2:18 PM PT · landed 3:30 PM PT (scheduled 2:22 PM PT → 4:03 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SNA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3494 · SFO → SNA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SNA?