OO 3764 · YVR → SEA

took off 4:15 PM PDT · landed 4:48 PM PT (scheduled 3:42 PM PDT → 4:44 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±3 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SEA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SEA that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YVR

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YVR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

YVR (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3764 · YVR → SEA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SEA?