OO 3860 · ELM → DTW

took off 5:38 PM ET · landed 6:38 PM ET (scheduled 5:44 PM ET → 7:13 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DTW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELM

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ELM (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3860 · ELM → DTW

Odds over time

How late did it get to DTW?