Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
OO 3869 · DTW → ELM
departs 10:52 AM ET · arrives 12:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at ELM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELM?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
ELM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
ELM (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.