Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
OO 3869 · ELM → DTW
departs 12:55 PM ET · arrives 2:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ELM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ELM (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.