Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3953
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28
OO 3953 · PDX → SEA
departs 9:32 AM PT · arrives 10:55 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.