OO 3991 · SEA → SFO

took off 6:17 PM PT · landed 8:06 PM PT (scheduled 5:50 PM PT → 8:16 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.18 in

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3991 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?