Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4125
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
OO 4125 · SMF → SEA
departs 1:00 PM PT · arrives 3:09 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↑
1pm departures from SMF are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
This flight has been late 9% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.