OO 4153 · SEA → SMF

took off 3:15 PM PT · landed 4:52 PM PT (scheduled 2:40 PM PT → 4:39 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SMF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SEA that day

↑ 2pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.27 in

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4153 · SEA → SMF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SMF?