Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4695 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

OO 4695 · SFO → ACV

departs 9:02 PM PT · arrives 10:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ACV more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ACV?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ACV (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4695 · SFO → ACV

Odds over time

How late will it get to ACV?