OO 4715 · SBA → SFO

departs 7:57 AM PT · arrives 9:20 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

61% chance · ±0 pts +36 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 52% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

Weather at each end

SBA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4715 · SBA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?