Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4717
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28
OO 4717 · MRY → LAX
departs 8:03 AM PT · arrives 9:40 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from MRY are often late
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MRY
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
MRY (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.