Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4789
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28
OO 4789 · ORD → FAR
departs 9:30 PM CT · arrives 11:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Today 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at FAR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAR?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FAR (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.