OO 5009 · IDA → ORD

took off 2:23 PM MT · expected to land 6:04 PM CT (scheduled 1:53 PM MT → 6:05 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

70% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
54%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ IDA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IDA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5009 · IDA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?