OO 5140 · MCW → ORD

took off 7:11 PM CT · landed 8:15 PM CT (scheduled 6:50 PM CT → 8:17 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at MCW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCW (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip0.13 in

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5140 · MCW → ORD

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORD?