OO 5406 · ORD → GRR

took off 12:43 PM CT · expected to land 2:10 PM ET (scheduled 12:27 PM CT → 2:32 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GRR?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GRR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5406 · ORD → GRR

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRR?