OO 5545 · SFO → SBA

took off 10:53 PM PT · landed 11:42 PM PT (scheduled 10:35 PM PT → 11:58 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to SBA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ SFO is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5545 · SFO → SBA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SBA?