OO 5688 · SFO → TUS

departs 6:44 PM PT · arrives 9:02 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5688 · SFO → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?