OO 5790 · ORD → STL

took off 1:42 PM CT · expected to land 2:28 PM CT (scheduled 12:52 PM CT → 2:15 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

LIVE

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
51%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5790 · ORD → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?