Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6185
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
OO 6185 · IAH → PHX
departs 6:27 PM CT · arrives 7:23 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Today 25%
Fri 10/30 39%
Sun 11/1 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.