OO 6303 · YVR → LAX

took off 2:12 PM PDT · expected to land 4:45 PM PT (scheduled 1:42 PM PDT → 4:39 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

LIVE

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
41%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YVR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YVR (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

LAX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6303 · YVR → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?