OO 6498 · PHX → SBA

took off 1:58 PM MT · landed 3:07 PM PT (scheduled 1:33 PM MT → 3:20 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SBA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6498 · PHX → SBA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SBA?